Monetary conditions,
investment, government consumption, public expenditure
and financial markets are major issues, which play a major
role in any economic activity. The current issue contains
five papers that largely cover the issues cited.
The
first paper, "Monetary Conditions Index in Singapore",
uses bound test approach for cointegration analysis, to
verify the stability of Singaporean real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), to construct the monetary conditions index
over the quarterly period 1981:1-2004:4. The authors have
concluded that the bounds test confirms a long-run equilibrium
relationship between the output and its determinants,
namely the short-term and long-term interest rate, exchange
rate, claims on private sector, and share prices. Results
reveal evidence of cointegration between these variables
in both short and long run. The authors also verified
the stability of Singaporean output demand function to
construct the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), and how
the Monetary Authority of Singapore responds to exchange
rate changes, and whether the policy responses differ.
The study has evidently showed that the actual monetary
stance reacts corresponding to the MCIs.
The
second paper, "Economic Growth, Investment and Government
Consumption in Italy: A VAR Analysis", uses a multivariate
time series analysis of output growth rate, investment
and government consumption in Italy from 1950 to 2005.
The author found that the empirical results are consistent
with the prediction of the Solow growth model, while they
do not support the family of endogenous growth models
according to which government consumption is a determinant
of long-run economic growth.
The
third paper, "Wagner's Law in Malaysia: A New Empirical
Evidence", uses Malaysia as a case study to test
the existence of Wagner's Law. The author found the existence
of long-run cointegrating relationship and short-runbut
not long-runcausality between economic development and
government expenditure in Malaysia.
The
fourth paper, "Modeling Household Demand: An AIDS
Model", studies demand side effects, if there are
any. For that purpose, household expenditure is modeled
by Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and data are estimated
decomposing the crisis period into two sub-periods. The
estimation results note some changes in cross-price elasticities
of goods in question.
The
fifth paper, "Financial Market Integration in India:
Conceptual and Empirical Issues", presents a comprehensive
review of the literature on the subject. A range of studies
investigating the convergence of markets within India
and also their convergence with the world markets seem
to have mixed results. The author concludes that despite
the mixed result, it is observed that the financial sector
reforms have been successful in strengthening the interlinkages
between the markets.
-
S V Seshaiah
Consulting
Editor